Bonds
Bonds Analysis & Opinion
Rates Spark: Markets Are Cutting Rates
01.12.2023
Rates Spark: Markets Are Cutting Rates
Financial conditions eased markedly through November, as market rates fell and credit spreads tightened (record month for bond returns).…
Rate Cut Expectations Drive Historic Bond Rally: How Long Can It Last?
30.11.2023
Rate Cut Expectations Drive Historic Bond Rally: How Long Can It Last?
Investors are increasing their collective bets that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates – a bet…
Rates Spark: All About Inflation
30.11.2023
Rates Spark: All About Inflation
The rates rally found its confirmation in German and Spanish inflation data ahead of today’s eurozone release, but finally…
Rates Spark: Effective Pushback Looks Different
29.11.2023
Rates Spark: Effective Pushback Looks Different
Rates continue to push lower after a soft 7-year US Treasury auction as Federal Reserve officials offer little pushback…
US 10-Year Yield: Is It Too Early to Cheer?
23.11.2023
US 10-Year Yield: Is It Too Early to Cheer?
The 10-year Treasury yield respected the 5% level – this is not a big surprise. However, to join the…
Yield Curve Steepening Isn’t Different This Time, and It’s Not the Same Either
21.11.2023
Yield Curve Steepening Isn’t Different This Time, and It’s Not the Same Either
Investment volatility remained elevated this year. One can point to any number of culprits. My preferred cause has been…
US 10-Year Bond Yield Confirms Elliott Wave Reversal: What Comes Next?
15.11.2023
US 10-Year Bond Yield Confirms Elliott Wave Reversal: What Comes Next?
The 10-year US government bond yield was hovering around 3.75% when we first wrote about it in mid-February. Elliott…
US 10-Year Yield: Retreat Signals Market Now Expects Fed Pivot Soon
15.11.2023
US 10-Year Yield: Retreat Signals Market Now Expects Fed Pivot Soon
Today’s “fair value” estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is…
Global Risk Asset Yields Edge Higher But Remain Below US 10-Year
14.11.2023
Global Risk Asset Yields Edge Higher But Remain Below US 10-Year
Current yields for the major asset classes edged higher recently, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the…
US Debt Crisis Signals End to Bond Age
13.11.2023
US Debt Crisis Signals End to Bond Age
US Treasury yields soared after Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) switched to a negative outlook for the United States, hammering home the…
Long Bonds: Is a Turning Point on the Horizon?
10.11.2023
Long Bonds: Is a Turning Point on the Horizon?
As I’ve mentioned in previous posts and webinars, the bond market is probably the least understood of the four…
Is the Bond Bear Market Finally Over or Just Hibernating?
07.11.2023
Is the Bond Bear Market Finally Over or Just Hibernating?
Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied…
What Would a Normally-Sloped Treasury Yield Curve Look Like?
06.11.2023
What Would a Normally-Sloped Treasury Yield Curve Look Like?
Here’s the issue with all of the social media and the volumes of research on the bond markets: it’s…
Several Corners of Bond Market Manage to Shine This Year Despite Treasury Selloff
05.11.2023
Several Corners of Bond Market Manage to Shine This Year Despite Treasury Selloff
The ongoing bear market in Treasury bonds is among the worst on record, but several sectors of the fixed-income…
Fund Flows Into Bonds Suggest Eventual Unwind of Bearish 10-Year Treasury Trade
05.11.2023
Fund Flows Into Bonds Suggest Eventual Unwind of Bearish 10-Year Treasury Trade
While bond yields have risen sharply lately, fund flows into bonds tell two very different stories. We have previously…
Rates Spark: US Jobs Data Can Be Key
03.11.2023
Rates Spark: US Jobs Data Can Be Key
The Rally In Long-End Rates Extended With the Curve Flattening Accelerating Overall, we have now seen a drop of…
US 10-Year Note Looks to Break Above Channel Resistance
03.11.2023
US 10-Year Note Looks to Break Above Channel Resistance
The big question everyone is asking today (and yesterday) is «Is the bottom in the bond market?»US 10-Year Note-Daily…